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Please try again later. そのような数学的モデルの中には社会に大きな害を与えているものもある。本書の著者キャシー・オニールが「数学的破壊兵器（Weapons of Math Destruction、以下WMD）」と呼ぶのはそのようなモデルである。彼女によればWMDとは、人々を評価する、ランク付けする、分類する、あるいは人々の行動を予測するなどの目的で作られた統計的数学的モデルであり、大規模に使用され、間違っていて、不公正で、有害で、不透明で、自己成就予言的であるといった特徴を持つものである。 本書の内容からはややはみ出すが、人間や組織を評価するための数学的モデルを作るという営為そのものが包含するバイアスについても私たちは注意を払うべきかもしれない。というのも数学的モデルを作るという決定がすでに、定量化できない価値、コンピューターで処理できるデータの形式に落とせない価値については無視するというある種の重大な価値判断を含んでいるからである。あることを評価する数学的モデルを作るという決定それ自体がバイアスのかかったものなのだ（この点については例えばRobert J Whelchel, “Is Technology Neutral?” IEEE Technology and Society Magazine, Vol. 5(4), Dec. 1986を参照されたい）。科学技術と市場経済を中心にして築かれた社会において、「定量化して評価するべし」というプレッシャーは強く、本来そのような評価がそぐわない領域（教育、行政、医療、芸術、学問など）までも浸食している。, オンラインbitcoinカジノギャンブルジョー. 「数学的モデルは私たちの道具であるべきで、主人であるべきではない」（p. 207）と著者はいう。もともとが数学者であった著者は、数学的モデルの濫用を嘆き、それがよりよい仕方で使われるように訴えている。そして「数学はWMDよりもずっと良いものに値するし、民主主義も同様である」(p. 218)という言葉で本書を締めくくっている。 There was a problem loading comments right now. Please try again later. From other countries. This book is about the dark side of the Internet and computer technology, and it is not for the faint-hearted. Its author, Cathy O’Neil, is a veteran of data business. With a PhD in number theory from Harvard, she began her career as a university math professor at Baruch College, CUNY. After a few years she moved on to the D.E. Shaw hedge fund, where she witnessed firsthand the destruction that computers and Big Data had unleashed upon the world’s economy. She then held a string of positions as a data scientist for several data processing companies, before finally becoming a journalist. The story told in Weapons of Math Destruction is an account of her experience with Big Data, big money and computers. Most of us know what Big Data is: a massive collection of information about anything we do from telephone conversations, private emails, chats, credit card records, Twitter activity, purchasing habits, ‘likes’, behavioral patterns, commuting and shopping habits, or professional contacts. The list is endless. We may see this vast collection of data about us as somewhat threatening to our privacy and somehow impinging on our ‘rights’. But we are uncertain how and on which rights it may impinge, and how these data violate our privacy. Our common view is that a store of these data exists somewhere, and someone may be looking at it for some reason. But so what? If we do not know how Big Data is affecting us, maybe it does not affect us at all, maybe all these worries are simply a form of paranoia? And, after all, what is wrong with someone knowing what kind of cornflakes I like, or that I like some photos? And we are right in a way. Big Data – even very big data – on its own is useless. What counts is how data is used, by whom, for what purpose, and how this use affects our life, our choices and opportunities. But for most of us this ‘how’ is totally unknown; it is hidden, invisible. As O’Neil describes this process: ”…the ocean of behavioral data (data about what we do), in the coming years will feed straight into artificial intelligence systems. And these systems will remain, to human eyes black boxes. Throughout this process, we will rarely learn about the ‘tribes’ (a statistical group) we belong to or why we belong there. In the era of machine intelligence, most of the variables will remain a mystery” (p. 173). She continues: “These automatic programs will increasingly determine how we are treated by other machines, the ones that choose the ads we see, set prices for us, line up for a dermatologist appointment, or map our routes. They will be highly efficient, seemingly arbitrary, and utterly unaccountable. No one will understand their logic or be able to explain it.” Weapons of Math Destruction is about precisely this ‘hidden’ element of Big Data. Each chapter of the book describes one facet of our lives and its immersion in the world of Big Data and algorithms. One case looks at a few teachers who were fired from their job. Of course, being fired is a sad part of life, but no one should be surprised if he/she was not properly doing their job. However, in this case, something was different. When one of the teachers asked the school board why she was fired, nobody could give her an answer. Finally, after threatening the school with legal action, she was told that she received a low score on the teacher’s evaluation score sheet. When she asked who did the scoring, she was told that they did not know. After more digging, it turned out that the school board had employed a data processing firm with a proprietary teacher’s evaluation algorithm. However, claiming trade secrecy, the firm declined to disclose how the score was calculated and what variables went into the model. Thus, the teacher was fired for no known reasons; she was effectively fired by an algorithm and data. And nobody could say why. A single incident with a teacher’s evaluation program should not be a cause for panic or even serious concern, but there are others. The 2008 worldwide collapse of a banking system and economies in most of the developed countries resulted in millions of lost jobs, family tragedies, broken lives and a loss of livelihood for countless individuals. It is difficult to comprehend the full scope of the destruction wrought by the 2008 economic collapse as it is impossible to summarize the many reasons for the crisis in a few sentences. However, one picture that emerges is as follows: using faulty algorithmic models employed by banks and financial institutions, unsecured loans were repackaged into so-called ‘collateral debt obligations’(CDOs) and sold as low-level risk investments – with risk being calculated by complex algorithmic methods. In the subsequent mixing of bonds and already risky CDOs into new CDOs, which is called repackaging, nobody could ascertain the actual value or risk of these new CDOs, since everything was done by algorithms – and algorithms ‘do’ what they are told to do. And as could be expected, these new products of dubious quality were rated by the algorithms as ‘low risk’ (i.e. secure investments). The market of subprime mortgages and their derivatives by 2007 grew to around $3 trillion. The market of CDOs and other financial instruments around it was twenty times as big. No country has an economy of this size. As this market of repackaged CDOs and other unsecured investment instruments was based solely on paper value derived by algorithms, at a certain point the economy collapsed. What is more, as O’Neil writes ,“Paradoxically, the supposedly powerful algorithms that created the market, the ones that analyzed the risk in tranches of debt and sorted them into securities, turned out to be useless when it came to clean up the mess and calculate what the paper was actually worth. The math could multiply the horseshit, but it could not decipher it” (p. 43). O’Neil describes similar algorithmic models used in the banking industry to assess someone’s loan rating, algorithms to speed up job applicant selections (about 70% of CVs submitted in job applications are rejected by a computer screening system), algorithms to process admission applications to colleges and graduate professional schools, algorithms to calculate individual insurance policy rates, algorithms deriving national university and college ratings, algorithms driving Amazon selections and suggested purchases, algorithms driving Google searches, or algorithms constructing targeted political advertisements, and so on. All these algorithms feed on data about us, and in one way or another all these algorithms rate our value for particular objectives. The problem is that only few of us know how we are rated and for what ends. And these few are certainly not us. A teacher’s evaluation, the economic crash, college admissions, access to loans, job hiring, etc. Does any of this matter? Perhaps if taken in isolation, we might say that it does not matter greatly. But I would argue the following. When taken together, these events – and there are countless other examples out there (for instance, see the Guardian editorials on the shaping of voter preferences in the Leave campaign in the lead up to the EU Referendum) – what emerges is a picture of the world in which someone is collecting extremely detailed information about the most private aspects of our lives and turning this information against us. With most critical decisions about our lives, we no longer matter; what matters is the data about us, so-called proxies. Decisions affecting us are made by someone else, and we do not know why. We have no way of challenging or questioning someone’s decision, because in most cases we do not know how the decision was made. And what is more, decision makers do not know either. With the advent of AGI, deep learning and the Internet of Things generating data about us probably on the scale of the Large Hadron Collider, there will be no place to hide. It sounds like an absolute dystopia, but as things stand, the situation is not yet dystopic. This is how O’Neil ends her book: “Data is not going away. Nor are computers–much less mathematics. Predictive models are, increasingly, the tool we will be relying on to run our institutions, deploy our resources, and manage our lives. But as I tried to show throughout the book, these models are constructed not just from data but from the choices we make about which data to pay attention to and which to leave out. Those choices are not just about logistics, profits, and efficiency. They are fundamentally moral”. A book is of value if it poses important questions, forces us to change our thinking, or discloses important aspects of the world previously hidden from view. Weapons of Math Destructions does all of these. The book reveals the dark underbelly of computer technology and how this technology invisibly but tangibly affects our lives. Most of us likely do not even suspect that the ‘world’ described by O’Neil exists, and some of us do not want to know. To be aware of this ‘world’ means that one is submerged deep within computing technology, and few of us are. While the book is about computers, Artificial Intelligence, Big Data and algorithms, it also raises important moral and ethical questions about privacy, the role of computers in our lives, as well as traditional ethical values and why they matter. Many books explore the issues of computer security, privacy, and Big Data. Few, if any, talk about the engines behind the internet, i.e. algorithms and computer models. O’Neils’s book is unique in this way. In the ongoing philosophical debate on the effect of the Internet on the society and people Weapons of Math Destructions, is a voice that should not be missed. 4.0 out of 5 stars Very clear, but over-reliant on government solutions instead of more choices for consumers (competition!) I was excited to read this book as soon as I heard Cathy O’Neill, the author, interviewed on EconTalk. O’Neill’s hypothesis is that algorithms and machine learning can be useful, but they can also be destructive if they are (1) opaque, (2) scalable and (3) damaging. Put differently, an algorithm that determines whether you should be hired or fired, given a loan or able to retire on your savings is a WMD if it is opaque to users, “beneficiaries” and the public, has an impact on a large group of people at once, and “makes decisions” that have large social, financial or legal impacts. WMDs can leave thousands in jail or bankrupt pensions, often without warning or remorse. As examples of non-WMDs, consider bitcoin/blockchain (the code and transactions are published), algorithms developed by a teacher (small scale), and Amazon’s “recommended” lists, which are not damaging (because customers can decide to buy or not). As examples of WMDs (many of which are explained in the book), consider Facebook’s “newsfeed” algorithm, which is opaque (based on their internal advertising model), scaled (1.9 billion disenfranchised zombies) and damaging (echo-chamber, anyone?) I took numerous notes while reading this book, which I think everyone interested in the rising power of “big data” (or big brother) or bureaucratic processes should read, but I will only highlight a few: * Models are imperfect — and dangerous if they are given too much “authority” (as I’ve said) * Good systems use feedback to improve in transparent ways (they are anti-WMDs) WMDs punish the poor because the rich can afford “custom” systems that are additionally mediated by professionals (lawyers, accountants, teachers) * Models are more dangerous the more removed their data are from the topic of interest, e.g., models of “teacher effectiveness” based on “student grades” (or worse alumni salaries) * “Models are opinions embedded in mathematics” (what I said) which means that those weak in math will suffer more. That matters when “American adults. are literally the worst [at solving digital problems] in the developed world.” * It is easy for a “neutral” variable (e.g., postal code) to reproduce a biased variable (e.g., race) * Wall Street is excellent at scaling up a bad idea, leading to huge financial losses (and taxpayer bailouts). It was not an accident that Wall Street “messed up.” They knew that profits were private but losses social. * Many for-profit colleges use online advertisements to attract (and rip off) the most vulnerable — leaving them in debt and/or taxpayers with the bill. Sad. * A good program (for education or crime prevention) also relies on qualitative factors that are hard to code into algorithms. Ignore those and you’re likely to get a biased WMD. I just saw a documentary on urbanism that asked “what do the poor want — hot water or a bathtub?” They wanted a bathtub because they had never had one and could not afford to heat water. #checkyourbias * At some points in this book, I disagreed with O’Neill’s preference for justice over efficiency. She does not want to allow employers to look at job applicants’ credit histories because “hardworking people might lose jobs.” Yes, that’s true, but I can see why employers are willing to lose a few good people to avoid a lot of bad people, especially if they have lots of remaining (good credit) applicants. Should this happen at the government level? Perhaps not, but I don’t see why a hotel chain cannot do this: the scale is too small to be a WMD. * I did, OTOH, notice that peer-to-peer lending might be biased against lender like me (I use Lending Club, which sucks) who rely on their “public credit models” as it seems that these models are badly calibrated, leaving retail suckers like me to lose money while institutional borrowers are given preferential access. * O’Neill’s worries about injustice go a little too far in her counterexamples of the “safe driver who needs to drive through a dangerous neighborhood at 2am” as not deserving to face higher insurance prices, etc. I agree that this person may deserve a break, but the solution to this “unfair pricing” is not a ban on such price discrimination but an increase in competition, which has a way of separating safe and unsafe drivers (it’s called a “separating equilibrium” in economics). Her fear of injustice makes me think that she’s perhaps missing the point. High driving insurance rates are not a blow against human rights, even if they capture an imperfect measure of risk, because driving itself is not a human right. Yes, I know it’s tough to live without a car in many parts of the US, but people suffering in those circumstances need to think bigger about maybe moving to a better place. * Worried about bias in advertisements? Just ban all of them. * O’Neill occasionally makes some false claims, e.g., that US employers offered health insurance as a perk to attract scarce workers during WWII. That was mainly because of a government-ordered wage freeze that incentivised firms to offer “more money” via perks. In any case, it would be good to look at how other countries run their health systems (I love the Dutch system) before blaming all US failures on WMDs. * I’m sympathetic to the lies and distortions that Facebook and other social media spread (with the help of WMDs), but I’ve gotta give Trump credit for blowing up all the careful attempts to corral, control and manipulate what people see or think (but maybe he had a better way to manipulate). Trump has shown that people are willing to ignore facts to the point where it might take a real WMD blowing up in their neighborhood to take them off auto pilot. * When it comes to political manipulations, I worry less about WMDs than the total lack of competition due to gerrymandering. In the 2016 election, 97 percent of representatives were re-elected to the House. * Yes, I agree that humans are better at finding and using nuances, but those will be overshadowed as long as there’s a profit (or election) to win. * * * Can we push back on those problems? Yes, if we realize how our phones are tracking us, how GPA is not your career, or how “the old boys network” actually produced a useful mix of perspectives. * Businesses will be especially quick to temper their enthusiasm when they notice that WMDs are not nearly so clever. What worries me more are politicians or bureaucrats who believe a salesman pitching a WMD that will save them time but harm citizens. That’s how we got dumb do not fly lists, and other assorted government failures. * Although I do not put as much faith in “government regulation” as a solution to this problem as I put into competition, I agree with O’Neill that consumers should own their data and companies only get access to it on an opt-in model, but that model will be broken for as long as the EULA requires that you give up lots of data in exchange for access to the “free” platform. Yes, Facebook is handy, but do you want Facebook listening to your phone all the time?

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